By Toyin Falola
Africa remains relevant to global politics. This view shapes the conversation generated on the possible impact of the Trump administration on Africa. Ironically, Africa often conforms to arrangements inspired by the powerful countries of the world, usually because they lack the collective ability to organize themselves as a continent. One emerging question that scholars ask about the unprogressive uncertainty that would emerge from the leadership of Trump is: How do African countries respond, individually or as a continent? The reason for this perspective is clear. If African countries make their demands from the American President who has introduced different policies, would they have the power of negotiations? And if they do as a continent, what if they also lose face in the process?
All these are deeply concerning as it seems the world is gradually moving towards a different character of international relationships. America is sometimes troubled, for example, with South Africa’s position regarding the war in Palestine, and for that reason, they tend to react with one-sided favouritism.
Considering the ongoing realities, however, necessary efforts must be taken regardless of their relationship prior to the emergence of President Trump. In any case, what will happen soon is uncertain, especially because nobody knows the consequences of the United States’ current policies. Even when these policies are unpredictable, Africa is greatly expectant of a future that does not put them in harm’s way, particularly for issues on which they have no input.
Scholars are beaming their searchlight of interest on what the American President means when he indicated that the US would be uninvolved in the international entanglements that some other countries face. They understand, to a considerable extent, that this reveals a posture to stand aloof in any conflict that does not have effects on America and its citizens. While that statement is good on its own, its face value is questioned, given that the same President intends to push an expansionist agenda, which, according to him, would see to the reclamation of what ordinarily belongs to America.
As a result, countries sharing borders with America would become the primary targets, which, on the surface, appears to be a problem that does not involve Africa. However, history has shown otherwise. Panellists understand that expansionism occurs in different dimensions, leading them to ponder how different countries of the world would react to this situation. Up to this moment, there has been ideological expansionism carried out by powerful countries, including America. Such conditions have necessitated the aggressive dislocation of many countries’ internal mechanisms for growth, as they draw inspiration from America, which seems to have established itself as the global police.
I now want to speak in parables.
Although change is a constant thing, its underlying causes are often overlooked in the general scheme of things. Evading this germane question has often necessitated conversations that ignore fundamental issues about human development and the social ordering of events. For instance, when people argue that change is constant and believe it is exclusively inspired by nature or some forces against which they stand no chance, they inadvertently assume that making efforts to protect their interests or redirect things is futile. Such an orientation places humans in an extremely uncomfortable spot in matters concerning their welfare. If such thinking persists, they will eternally remove themselves from the possibility of dictating what happens to them.
I have interacted with Africans who think in this way, and they are less active in matters that ordinarily concern their collective progress. From the beginning of contact with external civilizations, things that happen to them have either been conceived as nature-induced, against which there is nothing they can do, or seen as a necessary path in the evolution of their society. From natural disasters, which can be predicted and properly managed, to human-induced disasters, many African countries have suffered extensively over their assumption that these changes would happen whether they act or not. Today, they face an indescribable onslaught of their cultural and existential values, they are responding in familiar old ways.
There are several changes caused by humans themselves, and scientific research has established that there is a chain of actions initiated by humans that have tremendous effects on people’s activities, mostly in negative ways. It is common knowledge that human actions cause the current waves of climate disasters. Since climate problems are dispersed in the atmosphere, for example, their environment of influence cannot be pinned to a specific location, even when the centre point of the destruction is public knowledge. It is also a general understanding that Africa is often not mentioned in discussions of rapid technological inventions due to their relaxed nature of being consumers rather than producers of cutting-edge technologies.
Although that is not the vocal point of this conversation, it cannot be mentioned. Africa is never isolated from the problems of climate change, which are predominantly caused by countries and continents heavily involved in the technologization of the world with climate-unfriendly inventions that contribute to the common global problem, specifically climate disasters. Before now, more powerful countries, especially the United States, have made strenuous efforts in collaboration with non-state actors to facilitate programs and projects that would mitigate the burden of climate disasters on many underdeveloped countries so that they would not experience brutal consequences for which they are innocent.
In the TF Interview on Trump and Africa, one of the panellists reiterated why Africa should not be made to face the deleterious consequences of climate disasters. The awareness of two different facts underscores this informed position. One, the United States is on an accelerated path to conservatism, with the newly elected President Donald Trump committed to protecting Americans first, regardless of the situation. Meanwhile, “protection,” like many terms developed from a similar philosophical paradigm, is relative as it could potentially mean subjecting others to inordinate challenges they cannot surmount. Two, Africans have been innocent or the most climate-friendly continent with minimal contributions to environmental or emission-related disasters. The inventions and factories in Africa, most of which can emit dangerous content into the atmosphere, are either linked to global capitalists or are exclusively owned by them. The people of the continent have not shown similar ambition as others have in recent times.
Africans deserve some measure of respite and not policies that would further complicate their situations. This conversation is necessitated by the understanding that Africans themselves are weakened in global politics. Now that they may face increased climate difficulties, they cannot hold others responsible for their failure to act where and when they should. Across the world, respect is not given unless you demand it.
In any case, Africa should be prepared for uncertainties that would be the brainchild of such development. For example, if America pursues an expansionist agenda without failing, countries like Panama and Greenland, among other proximal societies to America, could trigger waves of terrorist reactions and responses, and no one can predict the consequences. Therefore, African leaders cannot assume they are going to be unaffected by this development, as any meltdown in these places would ultimately affect the economic and sociopolitical exigencies of their people. This cannot be overemphasized, and African leaders must make necessary adjustments to successfully navigate such extreme conditions.
What cannot be denied is that changes a “big man” is now in power who could reorder things differently. Africans must make the right decisions to ensure their interests.
* Falola is Extraordinary Professor of Political Science at the University of Pretoria, South Africa
(This is the final interview report with a panel of scholars on “President Trump and Africa” on January 26, 2025. For the transcript, see YouTube https://www.youtube.com/live/XFjeae1GceY?si=t0IlhQl3Qrs9W35v
